Do we have a free will? Or everything is pre-determined?
Probabilities
Every event in The Universe has a certain probability to happen or not to happen. Lets begin with the very simple example: flipping a coin.
All of us know that the coin will be fallen either on HEAD or TAIL. Well, actually there is also a sheer probability for being fallen vertically, but lets ignore it for the sake of simplicity. So there is 50/50 chance for the different sides of coin, meaning that it will be fallen on one of the sides by 100%. But why can’t we know on which side exactly? Why are we limited only to 50%?
Well, there answer is…we are not.
In fact, every prediction is made by gathering all the influencing factors in the system inside of which the event happens and making a calculation based on that variables.
For example, we can predict almost by 100% the trajectory of the planets, which seems much more complex than a simple coin. Then, why can’t we predict the falling side of the coin? — We can. But for that, we need to collect all the variables affecting the event, like: the force applied to the coin, the resistance of the air, the square and density of the coin, the angle of throwing etc.
Having these variables and putting them into the certain math formulas we’re definitely able to predict by 100% on which side the coin will be fallen. Well, almost 100%. Because the system where the event happens is not absolutely closed and there can be factors affecting the event, that you are not aware of before. For example, the earthquake may happen or the nuclear bomb could be dropped while your coin in the air. Of course, these events will break all your predictions, because you didn’t include them into your calculation. But what if you will?
Nothing depends on us
We’ve talked about the coin and the prediction of its falling side. But what about the human? Since, we can predict the movement of cosmic objects, the falling side of coin etc. why can’t we predict our behavior as well? Actually, in theory — we can. However, the human brain is the most complex object in the whole Universe, probably even more complex than the Universe itself. And the influencing factors are extremely big. In fact, for predicting the behavior of one person we need to include into the calculation the behavior of all other people, because all of us are inter-connected with each other and our thoughts impact each other.
But that’s just a technical limitation. If we had an incredibly powerful computer with the vast computational power capacity then we could collect all the variables influencing our choices and predict by 100% when, where, what we will do. Yes, we can. After all, human being is also part of the system and our brain works according to the certain patterns. So, if there is a pattern — there is a prediction. Just need to connect the dots…
Are we alive?
There are some events in the nature that are predictable. Consider the water cycle. Water evaporates and then comes back in the form of rain and this cycle is repeated over and over again. Yes, water doesn’t have a consciousness (are we sure?), therefore it lacks of will. So it’s really easy to predict its behavior.
What about the animals? We still can’t be sure that they don’t have any consciousness. Are they orchestrated purely by their genes that pre-programmed their actions or they have ability ‘to decide’ not to succumb to instincts and override their expected behavior?
Perhaps, the only difference between us and animals is that we can override our behavior. Both of us have the default pre-programmed behavior which defines our actions for the different event and cases. But in comparison with animals, we, humans can override that. This ability is what makes us the real human. We have a second set of behavior, which is produced by our rational thinking and can customize the default one, which is impossible for animals. Or is it?
Imagine a lion and a deer. It’s absolutely predicted that hungry lion would hunt for food. Of course, there can be other different factors hinders him doing that (e.g wounded paw), but in average, under normal conditions there is no need to be a genius to expect the hunting. And it’s also predicted that deer would run away from lion.
Sure, it’s predicted as well, that hungry human eats something, but not always. As we discussed earlier, humans can override their behavior, which makes it harder to predict their actions, meanwhile animals can’t declare a hunger strike :)
So, just like the water cycle, the behavior of animals is easily predicted. In fact, the living life and soulless water are not very far from each other. So is the human…
Do we really have free will?
Since, we can override our behavior it is not really possible to predict our actions, right? Well, not exactly. The only difference (in terms of prediction) in behavior of human and animal — is complexity. Human behavior is extremely complex in comparison with animal’s. But any complexity is relative.
2+2=4 could be as complex for a dog as a quantum theory for an average Homo Sapiens. Or advanced algebra which seems us complex could be as simple as basic arithmetic for more advanced civilization (some ‘guy’ from another planet). And for the same ‘guy’ human behavior could be as predictable as the kitten’s one.
Lets dive deeper…
When we make a decision, it’s made based on some different factors. You think, you’d would like to clap your hand and you did it, but did you think that, why had you like to do that at this precise moment? Why didn’t I want to do it? What led you to do that? The answer is “because I’d like to” is nothing, but an illusion.
In fact, we think that the decision is made by us, meanwhile it’s calculated subconsciously, we’re just aware of the outcome of this calculation and can’t really affect the process itself. And none of the factors affecting the process of calculation depends on us. No one.
Any decision you make and action you take - is the communication of the neurons. It’s basically the sequence of the neuronal firings which continues till today from the moment your brain is formed. And the way they gone through directs them, creating a complex pattern. So, when you claim that “I didn’t do that because I’d not like to” the question is, how your “desire” could intervene the neuronal processes inside?
Our desire to do or not to do something is just an illusion, in fact, it’s just another neuronal firing that have been leading each other since your birth. It’s nothing but the link of the chain, which you think you are charge of. Your behavior and your actions are production of your brain. Nothing could be outside of it.
Of course, you perceive the information from outside by your organs, but they processed in your brain following the neuronal pattern you’re already have (mostly, subconsciously). You see the cake and eat it, thinking that you decided to do that — but that’s the response of the neurons to the information from outside, leading you to take an action. You can’t control that, let alone change.
In one cognitive experiment made by neuroscientists, fMRI could predict the decision of people 11 seconds before they consciously aware of it. For more details click here.
So, your “desire” can’t enter into your brain from outside, it’s already there inside in the form of neurons, but just you didn’t bring that. It is a consequence of the neuronal activity, which occurs subconsciously. You’re only aware of the result, not the background processes and following the logic of cause-effect, you think that was you who generated this or that “desire”. Meanwhile, it’s your brain who pushes you to make a change.
When you go against your desires and break your bad habit, it’s not “your choice”— it’s a lucky neuronal pattern which came to this outcome and made you take that action. So, it’s super-confusing and tempting to think that we are responsible for our actions.
We are not.
Enough of talking, lets make an experiment :)
Imagine, there is alcoholic John and workaholic Ross. We’re required to go as deeper as we can to find out the root cause of their actions asking the series of “why?” questions:
- Why John consumes alcohol and Ross doesn’t?
- He is depressed.
- Why is he depressed, when Ross isn’t?
- He lost his job.
- Why did he lose job when Ross works?
- His performance was bad.
- Why was his performance bad when Ross’s is good?
- He’s not talented/lazy/have no power of will.
- Why?
- Genetics.
Am I responsible for my genes? — Of course, not.
(If you think it’s not about genes, but he just doesn’t want to work, then the next “why” is emerged — go further.)
Yeah, it’s simplified, but if you are going to make this experiment with absolutely different series of “Why?” questions you’re always going to end with the answer, that we’re not charge of it. That doesn’t depend on us. Our parents, our community, our genes etc.
Stop, community does depend on us. We can change it. “And if somebody became the victim of community instead of changing it — that’s his fault” - you probably think. But why certain of us changes our community the other ones don’t? Go deeper. Ask further. Again, you will end up with something that doesn’t depend on us. I bet you to find something that really does depend on us. Chat me in instagram, and lets make this experiment together.:)
Here’s the another thing: if you were born at the same time that Obama was, had the same genes, went to the same school, had the same classmates and all of other factors would be the same, then you would be Obama. And not the second one, but Obama himself, which he is. So if I’m not Obama, but homeless or drug user instead, what’s is my fault? If Obama had the same factors of life, he would be me also.
I don’t claim that maniac shouldn’t be punished for his actions. He should be. But he is not responsible for them. Yeah, that’s how life is. You should be punished for being you. It’s not your fault that you’re a bad person. But it’s not our fault either. You are going to be imprisoned for being such.
The Universe is the closed system
Everything in the Universe is directly or indirectly bounded to each other. From the particles to the Black Holes. Actually, for predicting one event by 100% we need to include into our calculation all the other events. For example, for predicting on which side the coin will be fallen absolutely precisely, we need to predict any other event in The Universe, because there is a probability that meteor will be fallen to you on the moment of throwing the coin or anything else.
So, putting it simply — The Universe is a very large chain of events one leading another. If you clap your hand now, it was predetermined since The Big Bang. Because the series of events are connected with each other, so If you could go back for 13.7 billions years, you could predict that in 13.7 billions years from now somebody would clap his hand. Having the snapshot of the state of The Universe in any given moment, you can predict the next or the previous state, meaning that you can not only predict the future, but the past also. Because there is a strict pattern between the events bounding each other. Just like the dominoes.
I guess, everybody knows the domino effect — you have trillion of dominoes leading one another. You drop the first domino. They fall one onto another. When the sequence of falling reaches the 834905th domino, it definitely falls also. You can go backward, and repeat this for infinite time. And every time the 834905th will be fallen. So being at the beginning you can predict by chain of fallings, that after some time the 834905th will be fallen. Because there is a pattern — one domino makes another fall. Or being at the 57833875th domino you can predict according to the pattern that the 834905th one have definitely been fallen. You can’t prevent this — it is predestined.
The same logic is applied to the Universe. Yes, the patterns here work in an extremely complex way, but they are still determined. Having into account the current state of the Universe, you can calculate the next state and the next after the next till the end. Or vice versa, you can calculate the reverse processes that led to this state — till the beginning (if there is one).
PMP: Prediction Machine Paradox
Imagine it’s 3023th year on the calendar and we’ve already developed the Prediction Machine (from now on — PM). You ask PM something about the future, it tells you by 100% what is going to be happened. And lets say you ask PM about yourself, like “Where will I go tomorrow?”. PM makes a calculation and sends you response, like: “you will go to the park”. But stop. There is something weird about it, isn’t it? Since, you know the answer, you are able to change it (the response of your neurons could go against the PM prediction). You can not to go to the park. But PM can’t be wrong. It should have knew that its response will change our decision and therefore give you the inversed response, like “you will not go to the park”. Oh, no. But here happens the same thing again. No matter what PM tells us, we always can do the reversed breaking the prediction.
Like a NOT GATE: that’s a logic gate that inverts whatever you send at the input. True becomes false, and vice versa. But if Prediction Machine is not able to predict the future, does it mean that regardless of the technological advancement we never could achieve the moment where we are able to predict the future? Or our intuitive logic itself is the subject of metamorphosis?
As Richard Feynman would say:
“I gotta stop somewhere. I leave you something to imagine…”
